Make one bid
on "how well I know myself."
A common-value auction collides with the winner's curse. The lot's true value is the same for everyone but unknown, and the highest bidder usually loses because they overestimated — a mathematical proof of "the more confident, the more you lose" in real life.
The more certain, the more likely you overpay
Your stake is your confidence. At the reveal, peer reviews are published anonymously; a hit adds points, a miss deducts currency — only the feel of real money can measure calibration.
02Game-Theory Core
Common-value auction → winner's curse. The lot's true value is the same for everyone but unknown, and the highest bidder usually loses because they overestimated. This is the mathematical proof of "the more confident, the more you lose" in real life. Literature anchor: Capen, Clapp & Campbell (1971).
One-line insight: the more certain you are that you know yourself, the more likely you overbid.
03Headcount / Duration / Venue
8–40 people (by group or whole room); 25 minutes; indoor + big screen.
07Result Output · Three Reporting Standards
| Report | For whom | Content standard |
|---|---|---|
| Personal report | The person | Blind-spot list + self-awareness accuracy band |
| Team report | Team / HR | Overall hit rate, average stake |
| Leader Report | Decision-maker | The team's tendency to "collectively overestimate / underestimate," no names named |
08Consequence Mechanism
A miss = currency deducted (the feel of real money). The only move that isn't deducted is admitting the miss — so admitting is cheaper than covering up.
09Ending Tiers
Mirror
Balance ≥100, and the missed items can be traced to their source.
What's valuable about you isn't confidence, it's calibration.
Iron Armor
High hit rate, but built on low stakes (afraid to bet = afraid to face it).
Those who don't bet walk away with a safe, false conclusion.
Unseen
All three miss, and all are attributed to others.
You mistook a mirror for an attack.
10Three-Part Insight
The higher the bidder, the more likely to lose — the same formula in an auction house and in life.
A team's blind spot usually isn't that no one knows, it's that no one says.
An executive who overestimates themselves will systematically overestimate projects.
11Play Kit
Blind-Spot Auction · Host-Side Rulebook
8–40 people (by group or whole room) · 25 min · indoor + big screen · blind-currency cards and sealed envelopes are printable
04Rule Steps (with timing)
- 0–3 min Hand out currency: each person gets 100 blind currency.
- 3–8 min Self-betting: write down "the 3 strengths I believe I have," staking 10–40 blind currency on each (the stake = how confident you are in your own judgment).
- 8–15 min Reveal: publish the peer-review results anonymously on the big screen and compare item by item. A hit (peer reviews also call it a strength) → +30 blind currency; a miss (peer reviews don't) → −20 blind currency.
- 15–22 min Second auction: use the remaining blind currency to bid for the right to nominate the "team blind spot" award (sealed first-price auction; the highest bidder wins the nomination right and publishes their own bid).
- 22–25 min Settlement: publish "the net return of the room's highest bidder" — usually negative. This is the live proof of the winner's curse.
05In-Game Currency and Payout Table
| Action | Payout |
|---|---|
| Hitting one strength | +30 blind currency |
| Missing one strength | −20 blind currency |
| Winning the nomination right | −bid amount +30 (the nomination right itself is worth 30) |
| Balance | Counted into the personal "self-awareness accuracy": balance ≥100 → accurate; <60 → overestimating |
06Observation Points and Tag Table
| id | Behavior description | Weight |
|---|---|---|
overbet | A single stake ≥35 currency | Courage +2, Wisdom −1 |
underbet | All stakes ≤15 currency | Wisdom +1, Courage −1 |
hit3 | All three hit | Wisdom +2, Growth +1 |
miss3 | All three miss | Growth −2, Courage +1 |
wincurse | Being the highest bidder in the nomination round with a negative net return | Courage +2, Wisdom −2 |
nobid | No bid at all through the second auction | Courage −1, Connection −1 |
precise | After a miss, able to say "which instance they saw" | Growth +3 |
defend | After a miss, attributing it to others not understanding | Connection −2, Growth −2 |
Dimensions: Wisdom / Courage / Growth / Connection. Tag format follows the signals mechanism: id / t (behavior description) / vec (dimension weights); repeated triggers within one session accumulate per occurrence, capped at ±6 per session.
AHost Script (state only, don't judge)
- Handing out currency: "Each person gets 100 blind currency, with tear-off corners for deductions — a deduction is a real deduction."
- Betting: "Write down the 3 strengths you believe you have, and decide your own stake on each; how much you stake is how accurate you think you are."
- Reveal: "We publish the anonymous peer reviews only and compare item by item, no names named, no judgments."
- Second auction: "Sealed first-price; write your bid clearly on the envelope; the highest bidder wins the nomination right and publishes their own bid."
- Settlement: "We publish the room's highest bidder's net return. I only report numbers, I don't comment."
BThe Three Reporting Standards
- Personal report (visible only to the person): blind-spot list + self-awareness accuracy band.
- Team report (team / HR): overall hit rate, average stake, presented in aggregate.
- Leader Report (decision-maker): the team's tendency to "collectively overestimate / underestimate," a team-level number, no names named.